January 26 at 7 PM: You may have weather burn out, but there is some weather to track tonight. Even though many schools have been announced closed or delayed Wednesday morning, anyone who has to travel should pay attention. If you have every heard of ‘a near miss’, that is what we have now. The radar this evening has been showing a flare up of rain from a large system in the Gulf states. Yes rain, building back into Maryland and Pennsylvania. There is some energy aloft while colder air is trying to arrive from the west. The timing of the two elements is off, so it should not cause a major issue. But enough will be available to possibly turn the rain to a mix or to wet snow on the back end by daybreak. My concern is the deep snowpack could refrigerate the air and there could be a few degrees in error in the modeling. Cold air does tend to arrive faster when there is deep snowpack east of the mountains. Below is a look at how this ‘may’ play out. Keeping with the theme of timing, the coastal storm to follow off the same front will form. But as I mentioned the other day, it will stay away and shoot of the coast.
Two views overnight:
GFS Model:
This is my model of choice lately as it has been on a winning streak for a few weeks. This shows the rain changing to wet snow overnight. Not much accumulation though, but roads could be slick (again). However it accounts for the colder air to change the rain to snow between midnight and sunrise.
HRRR Model
This shows the rain building in, but a slower arrival of the cold air. The depiction holds mostly rain, but I would keep the caveat for wet snow mixing in after midnight.
Notice the freezing line does reach the north end of Baltimore by 7 AM. But even with a mix around the Bay or Delmarva, the surface air will be close enough to freezing to consider the issue of a few degrees in error of the model. Thick snowpack is likely to aid in extra chill. But if anything, it will be a morning thing only.
Temperatures:
Again, this is the HRRR Model. But we should consider the possible error of a few degrees due to deep snowpack and speed of the cold air.
A Coastal Storm, But For The Fish
It looks like we were on to something a few days ago. The southern, El Nino infused pattern is too fast, and will scoot out of here before the cold air could arrive. So little chance to turn up the coast. The GFS Model tracks this out to sea. But the other part from the Great Lakes could bring in some snow showers or flurries Friday. But otherwise, the timing is off if you wanted another event. A big win if you want a break.
FITF
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