My Thoughts On Winter Storm Next Weekend

January 17 2016 – We just got through a snow event, albeit light, and I think winter lovers are ready for more. There are a few things in the pipeline this week as arctic air settles in for a few days. But at this point, if you are snow hungry and hear about a ‘big storm’, the little things are not what you want to hear about.  So if you have not seen the models yet, I have the sliders for comparison below. But first, please see my quick notes. This is not a forecast, just my thoughts right now. If you have followed my forecasts in prior winters, some of these sound familiar. I love snow and want it as much as anyone, but there still needs to be some caution in the days ahead. Faith in the Flakes.

• I DO NOT believe in snow totals more than 48 to 72 hours ahead of an event. There are too many variables. So the apps and cable station providing that now I would not believe. I’ve seen the big snow numbers and I don’t think it is wise to lock on to that yet. With a possible Friday event, I would think Wednesday would be the tome to look at legitimate snow total guesses.
• If you see a snow product from a computer model, please look away. I know these products and usually the overdo snow projections. It’s better to think small and end impressed that lock on to some large snow total and then get disappointed even if there is a moderate event.
• This is NOT an EPIC storm as I see it now. It looks like a typical strong winter storm. Just something we have not seen yet this season.
• The storm tracks below also show ice mixing in to central Maryland. That potential alone is a reason to NOT put out a snow forecast this early.
• In a few decades of forecasting, I can probably count on one hand all the times a computer model forecast 6 days away was perfect with its storm forecast. So what I show below, is a gauge. There is likely to be an adjustment of timing, intensity, and track.
• The rain we had this past Friday night was heavy… but the forecast 5 days beforehand actually had a washout for all day Saturday. The timing sped up and we ended up with a dry Saturday… keep that in mind with this current outlook time table. It is subject to change.
• The GFS Model just won this weekend with the coastal snow. It is worth watching to see if the recent NOAA computer upgrade has helped.
• I usually love the Canadian Model, but that in in winters dominated by the Polar Jet. This El Nino charged winter is not its strong suit, which is why I have not mentioned it much.
• The three main models here are in agreement that there will be an event between late Friday and Saturday. This works off blocking to the north and forcing a storm from the Ohio Valley to redevelop south of Baltimore.
• Here is what the storm looks like on the models now. I will refer back to this post during the week to compare.

GFS Model