Friday January 15 2016 – At 6AM today BWI was 32°F which is close to the afternoon for most of us this past Monday. We are in a mild stretch again as temperatures approach 50°F ahead of our next storm. Yes, this will be a rain event. But it is speeding up and shifted east. Proof that after re-reading my Winter Outlook I should take my own advice. In an El Nino year, that is the way storms will go. A push in speed and location to the east due to faster upper level winds. The next result will keep the heaviest rain on Maryland’s Eastern Shore. The timing will have it out of here Saturday. In short, the weekend will not be that bad…
What about the Sunday snow? Well, this proves that there has been NO IMPROVEMENT to the GFS Model. Again, I don’t and should not trust modeling beyond 4 days this winter, especially with this model. But some snow showers or flurries are possible as the cold air returns. On the opposite end of the spectrum we have the rare January Hurricane Alex hitting the Azores. I’ve mentioned that it could buckle the northern jet stream and help the cold for us this winter. An update on the track below.
Rain Timeline:
Sunday Snow Showers?
The upper level energy I showed two days ago looks less impressive. There is a vort max passing to our south in Virginia. This is the product that showed the purpose for our snow burst earlier this week. I think we will see flurries or snow showers Sunday, but not too organized. The main energy stays south due to the El Nino push aloft.
Sunday Surface Map:
Temperature Outlook
The cold will hold next week. I think the highs on Monday might actually stay in the 20s
Hurricane Alex:
This is the first January hurricane in the Atlantic since 1938. See the winter tropical storm history in my prior report. Winds are 75 mph this morning. The National Hurricane Center has the forecast track pushing north and then moving westward before reaching Greenland. That is a blocking pattern or ‘retrograde’ in respect to the movement of normal storms in the northern latitudes. Should that occur, it will buckle the jet stream and help send colder air farther south into the eastern US. Also, the supply of warmer water into the North Atlantic will help the long range pattern to develop blocking.
Latest stats:
LOCATION...38.0N 26.9W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF TERCEIRA ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
National Hurricane Center Tracking Map
Alex Satellite Images
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