The trace of snow on Tuesday at BWI was the latest wait since 2007 when it came on January 21. Are you itching for more? There will be two storms this weekend, the first one bringing rain and the second one has potential for snow. Notice how I chose my words carefully. ‘Potential’. I have been cautious all winter, especially when this thing first popped up on the maps 10 days ago. I don’t trust long range modeling, especially in an El Nino year. But as I mentioned this morning, I believe it will be the storms that are not well defined many days in advance that will hit us. I also showed that Sunday event and expected it to verify farther north. Here is why:
The upper level energy seen here with the vorticity at 500 mb (18,000 Ft) is the same product I used for Tuesday evening’s snow many days in advance. What I see here is the upper level Low back in the Great Lakes positioned with the trough axis in a negative tilt. This allows the energy near the coast to hang back and develop instead of running out to sea. There is a fort max, and other spokes of energy around that core upper Low that will help capture the coastal, but also send more energy after it passes by.
I don’t take abrupt changes lightly. Please note that there is no howling here by this snowhound… yet. I just want to point out the potential and I think it’s leaning for something on our favor.
In short: While I don’t believe even these maps below will be the final result, I expect a second storm to bring potential coastal snow and follow with a few days of snow showers. Faith in the Flakes. The irony is that it should this verify, comes on the Martin Luther King Jr extended holiday weekend. Sorry teachers and kids. Beggars can’t be choosers this winter.
Latest Storm Maps
This is the GFS Model… A storm that was lost and now back. There is some decent among the models as to where there will be one larger wet storm Saturday, or this two storm solution with snow Sunday-Monday. I don’t want to confuse you with too many now.
Prior Look Of This Event From GFS Model
Compare this to the image (and context) I mentioned just this morning:
From last week
This was how the same model depicted the same storm last week from January 7.
The late snow stat was courtesy of the my friend and former chief: Tom Tasselmeyer who tweeted this earlier today:
Faith In The Flakes: Show Off You Pride As The Snow Arrives
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