radarNoonJan12Our first winter weather event of the season is poised to reach us later today. This noon radar snapshot shows some virga (snow falling but not reaching the ground) near us. The main event is the vort max. That energy aloft is circled in yellow and in a prime spot to pass south through Virginia. This will enhance between the mountains and the coast.

The high resolution modeling has caught on to the upper level energy showing a distinct squall line is showing up that matches with the vort max maps I’ve been showing for a few days.  There will be some snow or rain showers developing during the afternoon, while the bulk of the moisture will appear to stay in the western Maryland mountains and ride north into Pennsylvania. That is a typical response to the terrain. But the main hit will pass east of the mountains and arrive as a full fledged squall line in metro Baltimore between 5 and 7 PM. There will be a short period of extreme weather for many of us That may only last an hour or two.

Evening Activities: Tough call to cancel.. but there will be difficulty with the snow burst visibility, then the icing that follows for most between 6 an 9 PM.

The rapid drop of temperatures will bring the teens into the suburbs and low 20s to Baltimore by midnight- justifying the Code Blue for the city.

Two sliders with notes below: Radar Simulation and Temperature Timeline. You can track along with the interactive radar on my home page.

Radar Simulation

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This detailed look at the radar simulation shows rain transitioning to snow in metro Baltimore, but I think it might be missing some of the dynamics that could make it snow sooner. Either way, YES it will snow! The squall line is an intense burst of snow that could make for a brief white out and overtake the warmer ground. This is where the flash freeze problem comes into play. Should there be melting snow or just wet ground, the freezing line will swing through between 6 and 8 PM. Temps will crash into the teens for many west and north of the beltway before midnight.

A good evening to get home early and eat in…

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 Temperature Timeline

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Long Range Temperatures

After spending Wednesday in the 20s there will be another bounce. The weekend storm still has some work, but may very well be mostly rain. Then temps crash again and the cold will hold next week.

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Faith In The Flakes: Show Off You Pride As The Snow Arrives

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