Storm Track For Second Week Of December

Storm after storm so far this season has had some relation to El Nino. It has been expected to be quite active, and my winter outlook plus a few others have suggested our winter in the east would be delayed.  Just because the only winter weather we can seem to get are frosty mornings, does not mean we will stay snow free for months.  But this month, at least for a few more weeks will remain mild. The coastal storm I mentioned last week, will still develop. In fact, there will be two of them. However, they are also following the pattern I have been pointing out for months: Trending farther east than first mentioned. So we end up with the ‘miss’ for now. If you are weary for snow, a mild December does not promise a snow-less winter. There are many signs continuing to suggest the second part of winter will be very different.

Check this out:

Do you remember a coastal storm I mentioned last week? This is what that storm looked like when I first mentioned it… At the time it was a 6 day forecast. Note, I wanted to follow this because of the pattern I had been pointing out for a few month… The trend of storms to end up farther east than first forecast in part due to faster upper level winds influenced by the El Nino:

This is the same storm, on the right was the last image I showed on Friday.  On the left, the latest forecast… farther east.

Why point out something that will not hit us? Two reasons: 1) To highlight the error with long range forecast, so when the next event appears to impact us, we can adjust accordingly. 2) To reinforce the current pattern. There will be two storms this week, following the same ‘out to sea’ fate shown in this slider.  Note that there is another storm expected next weekend. I want to see the trend before showing that, as it looks like rain, ending with a brief visit of colder air.