Saturday Sep 12 Soaking Rain At Times: Simulated Radar

Rain is on the move, and it will be with us most of the day. It is important to note that while it will get wet, there will be a few dry hours in between. But when it rains, it may come down heavy. Pockets of flooding and even embedded severe storms may pop up this afternoon. In my last update, I suggested that error the models displayed with the Thursday event, and also that today’s developing storm had similarities. I still see that. A broad Low Pressure will be forming over Maryland. Considering the rain arriving already this morning, the timing is a little faster than first suggested. The other factor is that the heaviest rain expanded farther north that these models had shown. I see the trend already, and the final result could still bump north.

Here are two separate commuter model radar simulations for today. The HRRR and NAM/WRF models have some differences is timing and placement, but overall show the same ideas:

1. There will be a few waves of rain
2. The strongest storms could turn severe in southern Maryland and the Delmarva. But if the trend proves true, that may include central Maryland.
3. Most of the afternoon will be stormy, but if the faster timing proves true, then we might be able to salvage the later evening hours.

Radar Simulation Sliders To Compare Models —>

HRRR Model