Erika is barely a Tropical Storm this morning, but it has a devastating past. The death toll for the island of Dominica is up to 20 people, so those in the path are on edge. A sad reminder of tropical potential on this 10 year anniversary of Katrina’s landfall on the Gulf of Mexico. While it was stronger at that point, dropping between 12 to 15 inches of rain on that island, the storm is getting torn apart as it passes to the east of Haiti now. Winds are only 40 mph, and wind sheer aloft is limiting the intensity. The most threatening part of this storm is heavy rain and flooding, which is why Governor Rick Scott of Florida has declared a State of Emergency. See more forecast maps below.
This outlook is very different than a few days ago. At one point, an expected strong hurricane was to pass on the east side of Florida, but due to a track staying south, Erika ran into more sheer aloft and tall mountains across Hispanola. That is essentially what has cause the shift and less impressive storm. Warnings and Watches are still in place for these islands:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas * The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo
The latest commuter model forecast guidance shows Erika on the west side of Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. While remaining a Tropical Storm, or possibly dropping to a depression, the heaviest rain will fall on the east (or right) side of the path. Rainfall could reach 5 inches or more in spots.
Erika Computer Model Forecast Maps
National Hurricane Center Info and Map
8 AM Saturday
LOCATION...21.0N 75.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF HOLGUIN CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES
Tropical Posts: Hurricane Info
- 2015 Atlantic Storm Names and Forecast
- History of naming Tropical Storms and Hurricanes
- Tropical Storm Formation: Origin Maps For Each 10 Days Of Season, Video
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