This evening update on Tropical Storm Erika on the surface doesn’t look like much. The winds are minimal at 40 mph, and it is a fast mover heading west at 20 mph. But this little storm will be entering a favorable environment over the next 5 days the supports growth to a strong hurricane with sights on southern Florida. This seems to be the opposite of what happened to Danny, which lost identity, but did bring beneficial rain to drought parched Puerto Rico today.
Erika should be more than just a rain maker. The path to the north of where Danny went, brings it past the Virgin Islands and the Bahamas this weekend. The outlook at this point keeps it on a straight path, a little farther south and without curving that was seen in my prior update. While looking at the maps below, please understand that 5 days is a long time for other weather systems to change and adjust this course. That is why The National Hurricane Center issues a wide cone with the forecast track. But this is already a talker and main story some of my friends are discussion on their TV stations in Florida tonight.
Advisory From 8 PM Tuesday Aug 25
LOCATION...15.8N 53.6W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM E OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Watches
Montserrat * Antigua and Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevis * Anguilla * Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten * Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
Forecast Intensity
Note the spread by Day 5 (Sunday) between Category 1 and 3, but the general consensus is that Erika will be a Hurricane.
Forecast Maps
The tracks bring Erika near or across Florida by Day 5, Sunday.
National Hurricane Center Maps
Tropical Posts: Hurricane Info
- 2015 Atlantic Storm Names and Forecast
- History of naming Tropical Storms and Hurricanes
- Tropical Storm Formation: Origin Maps For Each 10 Days Of Season, Video
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