Screen Shot2015-08-20 11_36_50Way out in the central Atlantic Ocean today is a little storm that has become the first hurricane of the 2015 season. I want to emphasize ‘little’ but note it is still important around the immediate center of the path.  The National Hurricane Center has determined the winds around Hurricane Danny are now 75 mph, and it is moving to the west north-west at 12 mph. The hurricane force winds extend 10 miles from the center, while tropical storm winds (over 39 mph) reach 60 miles away.  A small storm, but the track does bring it towards the northeastern Caribbean islands over the next five days. It should be noted that this is an El Nino year. That pattern of warm water in the Pacific increases the winds aloft and limits tropical storm development in the Atlantic. There are special cases where a single storm can overcome the other forces and be very destructive, such as Andrew in 1992. But most cases, there are more forces that will hinder rather than help intensification. Screen Shot2015-08-20 11_34_55This storm is very far away from land, but the forecast track brings it to the islands of the northeast Caribbean over the weekend into next week. There will be rough seas for cruises, and high waves for the islands. But at this point, it does not appear to be much more than a category 1 or 2 storm. The track near or north of the islands may help determine if this becomes a US threat or not. The latest computer modeling suggests a lean to the right of the center of the forecast track. So compare these images to the National Hurricane forecast cone below.  That cone allows for a margin of error, but the computer model trend is pointing either over the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, or possibly to the north.     Screen Shot2015-08-20 11_32_28    

 

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Large View Satellite:

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National Hurricane Center Update:

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...12.5N 44.8W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

Tropical Posts: Hurricane Info

2015 Atlantic Storm Names and Forecast History of naming Tropical Storms and Hurricanes Tropical Storm Formation: Origin Maps For Each 10 Days Of Season, Video  

Two Of First Three Storms Of 2015 Impacted Maryland:

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Tropical Storm Claudette: Third named storm, First To NOT hit Maryland

Our first storm of the season was Ana on May 7-11. But the season has been quiet. June 15-21 was Bill, then Claudette only lasted July 13-14.    

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