Big Rain May Stay Just South Thursday Night And Friday

We have a storm on the way to track for Thursday into Friday. It’s not a line of thunderstorms but rather a fall or winter style synoptic Low Pressure. This is interesting to follow for two main reasons. First, a strong are of High Pressure in Canada will suppress the rain with the battle line in central Maryland. The two models I show below have that rain either just at Baltimore or staying south. But this rain forecast image from NOAA’s NCEP shows 2″ of rain for Baltimore and extension of 1 inch into southern PA. But the models cut it off there. Southern areas look more likely for rain. For clarity, Ocean City and the beaches southward are have the best chance to NOT stay clear, but get a dose of rain. What we all get will be a chilly northeasterly wind that could hold our afternoon temperatures down in the 70s.

The second reason this is interesting is because it will help show how the computer models are handling this storm, one that a few days ago looked like it would hit Baltimore. We are in an El Nino infused pattern, which increases the air flow aloft. Event if just slightly now, it could be something that models are not incorporating properly. The best analogy I can give is a winter storm that looks like a big snowmaker and then at the last minute misses. That is usually not because the storm veered off course, but rather the computer model guidance was far from perfect.

I look for patterns that show up early in a season. So here are the GFS and NAM model simulations for this storm. I am not making a forecast, but at this point playing eyewitness.

GFS Model Simulation

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NAM Model Simulation

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