Screen Shot2015-07-13 21_46_17The eruption of severe storms Monday proved expectations true. A long swath of damage reports extends from Minnesota to Florida, but the concentration on the map stands out across the Ohio Valley. Only 5 tornado reports, but 391 reports of wind damage suggest a derecho did occur.  This map is important to compare to the storms for Tuesday.

Below is the simulated radar showing a line of strong to severe storms expected to pass through Maryland. This will be between 11 AM west of Baltimore and 3 PM on the Eastern Shore. But, the upper level winds follow a similar path as today. Those are both steering currents but also energy for the damaging weather. The timing for central Maryland and the Delmarva will act on the heat of the day, but matching this will the energy aloft will determine if we reach severe limits. That is why the Storm Prediction Center has our region as marginal with the energy diving south. See the maps below and check back for a complete update in the morning.


Simulated Radar

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Upper Level Winds

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Severe Storm Risk:

Note: This marginal region is subject to change. The upper level wind flow as seen aloft does suggest that there will be less of a dive to the south and more push east crossing the mountains. The overnight sounding will help display the current upper level wind conditions for support.

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