Updated at 4:15 PM- The Tornado Watch issued by the Storm Prediction Center remains in effect until 9 Pm for much of central Pennsylvania and central/northern Maryland. Below is the ominous NAM/WRF model and updated HRRR model simulation to show the timeline. Central Maryland can expect the action between 5 to 8 PM. Generally 7:00 to 10 PM across the Eastern Shore and Delmarva. The latest HRRR model shown first, might be a little fast with the timing. Please give a 1 hour cushion to what you see below. See more notes below.
Radar Simulations
HRRR Model (allow a 1 hour cushion for timing)
NAM/WRF Model
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Notes:
The NAM indicates individual cells moving northeast, but the line does drop southeast. The HRRR picks up the moisture form the Bay and expands the storm line farther south with more influence on the Delmarva.
When the threat of severe storms approach, I often turn to the wind direction. That is a key element in our region since storms from the west must ride over the mountains which can tear them apart. But when a southeast wind off of the Chesapeake develops as we have seen at times today, that can enhance the storms around metro Baltimore. The moist Bay air meets with the storm line and can sustain it or cause an eruption of development somewhere between I-95 and the foothills north and west. As of the 4 PM hourly observations, the winds were varying between due south and southeast… marginal.
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