June 8 2015 – Showers have developed this morning, and it looks like compared to my last post, the chance of storms arrives earlier this afternoon. NOAA outlook for today’s risk of storms turning severe includes a chance for isolated tornadoes now as the earlier timing will tap into more heat of the day. Large hail over quarter size, and wind gusts over 60 mph also in the potential with development, but not a guarantee. It appears a prefrontal trough, or line of storms ahead of the main front is what we are looking at early to mid afternoon. Here are the latest outlook maps and simulated radars. As always, we can look at wind direction for the primary indication. An easterly flow in central Maryland comes off of the Chesapeake Bay and increases our chances. If the wind is more westerly, then storms tend to break up after crossing the mountains. The chance of storms drops off a lot for areas south and east of Baltimore. The NAM Model below highlights that, while showing the mountains of western Maryland and Pennsylvania getting hammered.
Severe Storm Maps –>
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Simulated Radars
Two models to compare here. The HRRR shows showers and storms arriving earlier in the afternoon. Considering that we have had showers this morning, this has more credibility. It is also worth noting as more heat would allow these earlier storms the better chance to turn severe. The NAM holds off the risk for central Maryland until 5 PM. Both indicate the best chance near Baltimore but increased west and north. Less of a chance closer to Annapolis and the Eastern Shore.
HRRR Model –>
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NAM/WRF Model –>
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Temperatures Outlook: Back above normal this week as temperatures aim for 90F in a few days.
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