I have tried to be optimistic for our weekend weather. Saturday May 15th is a chance for the world to once again see Baltimore, this time with some of the best we have to offer in the 140th running of the Preakness Stakes. In addition to the Orioles playing at home, numerous festivals and races, I have had countless brides to be asking about their weddings. The risk of rain has bounced around based on the energy left with the cold front. The latest morning model data for Saturday afternoon rain chances has increased:
- GFS Model: 77%
- NAM Model: 53%
Here is a look at the NAM model simulated radar between noon and 8 PM. This is suggestion of what might happen, not a guarantee of time or location. There still could be parts of the area that miss out, and that could include where your event is. What I do want to point out is that this shows an increased risk of strong thunderstorms, especially for the southern half of our area. More info below:
Rain Timeline: NAM/WRF Model
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GFS Model Rainfall Potential
Notes:
- Potential rainfall: .25″ to 0.50″ in isolated thunderstorms.
- We need rain!
- More rain is possible on Sunday with scattered storms.
- An increased risk of more widespread rain Monday and Tuesday
- Baltimore’s BWI has not had significant rain since April 30th when .33″ fell. Only two days this May, 0.01″ was recorded.
Rainfall Potential Through Tuesday:
Most of this may fall on Monday…
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